Data Use Application 003

Early detection of referable DR allows for the prompt referral to the hospital eye service for closer monitoring and treatment. DR screening is credited, in part, for the significant reduction in DR-associated severe sight impairment. However, it is estimated that some 80% of people with diabetes are at a low-risk of progression to sight threatening disease over 2 years. Our primary objective is to develop DL models that can predict individual-level risk of progression to referable DR or maculopathy over 3-years. The DL models would enable individualised risk-based follow-ups for all patients attending routine DR screening in the UK meaning low-risk participants could avoid unnecessary screening visits but those at risk can be detected early and referred for closer monitoring and treatment. If realised, individualised risk-based follow-ups could reduce screening appointments by 40% and screening costs by 20% with an estimated £23 saving per appointment from the individual/societal perspective. External validation of developed DL models would demonstrate their effectiveness in a separate DR screening service and hence the generalisability of developed models. This would pave the way for prospective safety and efficacy evaluation, which, if positive, could result in the use of developed DL models within the national DR screening service.